novelslam Chapter 1445 Achilles' Heel (4K)
Chapter 1445 Achilles' Heel (4K)
Chapter 1445 Achilles' Heel (4K)
As the Spring Festival approaches, Fang Zhuo has become even busier than in the first half of the month. In addition to daily affairs, he also needs to travel to several cities for meetings.
However, this year he is not the only one who is busy. Yi Ke and Bing Xin will also be very busy. Especially Bing Xin, her annual leave has been cancelled and she still needs to work overtime. As for the holidays...
When the photoresist is consumed, if domestic manufacturers do not make a breakthrough, Bingxin will probably usher in the longest holiday since its establishment.
Fang Zhuo did not spend the Spring Festival at home this year. Instead, he chose Luzhou as the last place for a meeting. After communicating with the leaders here, he settled down in Bingxin on the spot.
On February 2, with only two days left before New Year's Eve, Fang Zhuo went to Beijing for a meeting to make a comprehensive report on the situation of Bingxin and Yike before the New Year. However, he saw a special report from Fox News on the way.
——Exploring the Achilles’ heel of Yike’s business empire.
As expected, when he arrived at the conference room in Beijing, this rather rational report became the focus of everyone's attention.
"In the past six months, Yike has been almost the most watched company in the world."
"This company's market value is among the highest in the world. It has a broad market and is well-liked by consumers. With it as the core, it has also spawned businesses with unlimited potential, such as mobile communications and social platforms. Recently, there has even been news of a product that is comparable to Intel, such as computer chips."
"This company and its subsidiaries are known in China as the 'Yi Ke system', but, like Homer's hero Achilles, Yi Ke's business empire also has its fatal weakness."
"We recently visited Yike's Achilles' heel and photographed the Fab1-6 plant of Bingxin International in Luzhou, China."
"This Fab1-6 plant has the world's most advanced 16nm production line equipped with the second-generation FinFET process. As of our report, this process is still about 20% ahead of competitors in performance."
"It is worth mentioning that the Ryzen series CPU released by AMD half a month ago was manufactured by this process. Unlike Yike's close cooperation with IceCore, which is difficult to cut, AMD chose to join the IceCore process camp at this critical moment, which is undoubtedly puzzling."
"According to reliable sources, the 16nm production capacity of the second generation of Bingxin is only provided to Yike's Mars series and AMD's Ryzen series products. The production lines are currently running day and night to prepare for the upcoming June."
"From November last year to the most important traditional festival in China, Bingxin has cancelled its holidays because BIS restricted its access to new photoresist raw materials, and the shelf life of this material is usually only half a year. This is also the time when many people predicted that Bingxin would stop production and Yike would collapse."
“Perhaps Bingxin will regret not building a new production line.”
"IceCore's second-generation 16nm process is an upgrade of the first-generation production line. If a second plant is built, its current 16nm production capacity will not remain at 1.6 pieces."
"Assuming that the last batch of photoresists supplied by Japanese photoresist manufacturers has been used up, Bingxin can only produce 6*1.6=6 wafers at most in 9.6 months, which is theoretically enough to provide Yike with the chips it needs in the next two to three years."
“However, due to the actual production losses caused by factors such as wafer utilization, test and packaging losses, and chip size, the actual output will be much lower than the theoretical maximum.”
"According to past industry practices, these 9.6 wafers can only produce about 4500 million qualified chips."
"If we consider Yike's risk management, if it had stockpiled when Bingxin had the second-generation 16nm process mass production capacity, the number might have increased to 6000 million. However, Yike has been working hard to supply before withdrawing from the US market, and 6000 million is most likely the most optimistic scenario."
"One thing that can be used to support this is that we have received the most authentic news from European operators that Yike's Slefy series products have reduced their supply and may not be completely discontinued in the future."
"YiKe will undoubtedly give priority to ensuring its most popular Mars series flagship products under limited production capacity."
"6000 million chips. Many people may not have much idea about this number, but just looking at Yike's financial report, you can know how embarrassing it is for Yike. Yike sold more than 3 million flagship phones worldwide in Q7000 last year."
"We make a reasonable estimate that even if we exclude the 30% of the US market, Yike's normal sales volume in 2016 should be maintained at least 1.26 million units."
"So, the facts are clearly in front of us. There is at least a 50% gap in the supply of Yike's most core parts."
"The good news is that although AMD has released the IceCore 16nm chip, it is still far from being a rival to Intel. If the combined sales of Ryzen 7 and Ryzen 5 this year can exceed 300 million units, it will be a success, and this will not take away too much of IceCore's production capacity."
"One bad news is... the rest is probably all bad news."
"BIS has found Yike's Achilles' heel. Competitors including Apple, Samsung, Taiji and China's mobile phone brand OPPO are already ecstatic and are planning to taste the delicious taste of Yike's decline."
"We didn't get to interview Mr. Fang on this trip, so we could only stand outside the Fab1-6 plant of Bingxin International and ask a question that we wanted Mr. Fang to answer."
"There are still 116 days until June st. Mr. Fang, what should we do?"
How to do?
The questions that Fox News was unable to ask Mr. Fang in person were read out by the leader in the conference room.
Fang Zhuo smiled and replied, "What can I do?"
Anyway, the opponents will definitely help to make a big fuss about it.
He objectively commented: "Fox's data estimate is really not too far off. Our internal estimate is that IceCore will be able to provide 6200 million chips to Yike by the end of May. This is probably based on the impact on our yield rate after the withdrawal of engineers from American manufacturers, but this has gradually been adjusted back."
"As for AMD, their sales forecast for this year's flagship Ryzen 7 and Ryzen 5 is 260 million units, which is about 10% of the market share in this segment. Bingxin will prepare 300 million chips for them."
"Looking at it this way, Fox's assessment is indeed good."
Although AMD has the support of Ice Core technology, the computer CPU is not just about the CPU. It also depends on the support of major manufacturers, which takes time to accumulate.
The production capacity of 300 million pieces is enough for AMD this year.
We’ll see what happens next year next year.
Yike doesn’t know how it will get through next year, and it depends on fate for AMD.
However, the leader was obviously not interested in Fox News's capabilities and AMD's situation. He only asked about Yike's situation with concern: "So, Yike's mobile phone can only guarantee sales of 6200 million units? Is it only stuck on the photoresist material now?"
Fang Zhuo replied, "Well, Yike can only sell 6200 million units in the European and Chinese markets this year, so we will suspend the sales of the Selfy series, reduce the supply of the standard version of the Mars series, control the sales speed of the mobile phone channel, and try to survive this period to see if there are any favorable changes in the photoresist."
There is a shortage of core components, so the supply of mobile phones is naturally limited.
Yike cannot stockpile too many spare chips. If it does not make money in the US market now, it will not know when the next time will be. The European market already needs to be maintained as much as possible, and the domestic market is growing rapidly.
In this case, the supply of the Selfy series of products has been slowed down and then stopped. This year, the supply of the Mars series will also need to be gradually restricted after the Spring Festival to ensure that there is still a voice for Yike products in the market.
"The launch of Mars 10 has to be postponed, and our press conference in the second half of the year may not be held." Fang Zhuo introduced the product supply situation and talked about the broken conventions. He smiled and said, "The good news is that although there are no new products, our Mars 9 is still competitive enough. The bad news is that there is only competitiveness but no goods."
Fang Zhuo was still smiling, but the other leaders all looked unhappy.
A leader who attended the meeting for the first time asked: "Is it so difficult to solve the problem of photoresist? Does it mean that as long as the problem of photoresist is solved, there will be no problem with production capacity?"
"At this stage, we can roughly say that the lower yield and lower profits caused by other problems are acceptable." Fang Zhuo first answered the latter question, then paused for a moment and explained, "If we want to talk about photoresist, we can't just talk about photoresist."
“Photoresist is indeed a raw material for us, but photoresist also has its raw materials, such as resin and photoinitiator.”
"Resin is the core component of photoresist. Its solubility in the developer directly affects the quality of the photolithography pattern. ArF photoresist contains 2-3 different resins. It is very difficult to identify and select each resin. The suppliers in this regard are Shin-Etsu Chemical and JSR Corporation in Japan, and DuPont in the United States."
"The photoinitiator accounts for a small proportion, but it is very important for the photosensitivity of the photoresist. Its type and dosage must be precisely matched. The suppliers in this regard are BASF and Merck in Germany and IGM Resins in the Netherlands."
"Xinyang Luzhou's R&D is still using photoinitiators from Germany's BASF, but it is no longer possible to purchase materials from Japanese and American manufacturers, so this part also relies on independent research and development."
Fang Zhuo cited these two examples and sighed: "In fact, this is still a microcosm of an industry problem. The restrictions of Washington and BIS have forced Bingxin to reshape its original global supply chain, but it will take time."
The raw material of ice core, photoresist, is a problem, and the resin and photoinitiator of photoresist raw material are also problems. All these are a microcosm of the challenges facing the industry this time.
The current challenge is still focused on the ice core, but just looking at the campaign voice that Meilijian has already raised, you can tell that it will not spread too far.
"Mr. Fang, you didn't even read the manuscript. It's like a doctor becomes wiser after a long illness." A leader couldn't help but praise Bingxin's head when he saw him talk about the industry's challenges, Bingxin's problems and Yike's situation without a script.
Fang Zhuo smiled and said, "It's OK. Even if I don't look at the data or the problems, the media and organizations will desperately write down the problems and data and push them in front of me through various channels. I will remember them all as I read them."
He thought for a moment and continued, "Like Academician Liang and Academician Hu, they are veterans who have been immersed in the industry for decades. I am also considered a semi-professional who has been immersed in industry issues for a long time."
There was a smile in the conference room.
Indeed, if there were no problems, there would be no need for Mr. Fang to look at them. The only problems that really come to him are either this one or that one.
"The photoresist problem will be solved. Xinyang's research and development has made progress. It already has a three-year joint research and development foundation. We have also spent a lot of money to recruit people from the United States and Japan, which can bring some help. We just need to wait."
"Now we still need to see how to give full play to the driving role of Bingxin and Zhongxin in the industry. Only by truly relying on the progress of the entire industry can Bingxin and Zhongxin make solid progress."
"At this stage, if you don't have determination, your opponent will beat you into submission. If you don't have patience, your opponent will also force you into submission."
"Therefore, Yi Ke and Bing Xin are both very determined and patient, and will solve the problems they encounter based on objective laws."
Fang Zhuo's attitude was very simple and he did not exaggerate the situation of Yi Ke and Bing Xin.
There is no need for him to exaggerate. The data, markets and various issues reported in the media can also be seen by those sitting in the conference room.
The meeting was over and the Chinese New Year was approaching. Before Fang Zhuo left, he received many blessings from leaders for a "better year ahead". He also passed these blessings on to his friends in Luzhou who were solving problems.
When people arrived in Luzhou, the first thing they did was to meet Wang Fuxiang, the head of Xinyang, who was still squatting there, and report their work to him immediately.
Wang Fuxiang was able to keep his composure at first, after all, he had already discussed this with Mr. Fang in Shanghai before. But when Mr. Fang told him the names of the leaders in Beijing who were concerned about the development of Xinyang, he felt...
It’s a bit of an honor!
There was no 29th day of the lunar calendar this year. Wang Fuxiang spent the next day's New Year's Eve with Mr. Fang, Academician Hu and others in the Bingxin Canteen. He also felt the optimistic spirit that prevailed here.
Professor Hu Zhengming delivered a New Year's greeting to some employees in the cafeteria:
"Now is the most difficult stage, but this stage will pass. Whether the ice core production is reduced or stopped in the second half of the year, we will recover soon."
"Mr. Fang has often said that we should keep improving. Yesterday, I asked him what he thought about the lack of raw materials for ice cores. After all, if there is a shortage of raw materials, there will be no progress."
"He said that taking a step back is to jump farther!"
Hu Zhengming, who rarely drinks, raised his glass in the Bingxin cafeteria and said, "I hope everyone can jump further with Bingxin next year!"
Fang Zhuo raised his glass with a smile and noticed that some people still had worries on their faces, but some others also had smiles on their faces.
I don’t know why, although the problem still exists, he is in a really good mood on this night with fireworks flying all over the sky.
Therefore, Fang Zhuo, who had not given a calligraphy gift for a long time, wrote a calligraphy work as a gift to the head of Xinyang in the office after dinner.
——Semiconductor weightlifting champion.
Wang Fuxiang didn't know whether to laugh or cry. He liked "The Ming Dynasty" very much and understood what Mr. Fang meant in seconds. The Yi Ke business empire is now on my shoulders!
On the night of New Year's Eve, he took the calligraphy back to the hotel. On the way, he looked at the shining night sky. He was full of confidence. He tested his brilliance on the photoresist and said, "I am Xinyang Wang Fuxiang."
(End of this chapter)